The Sabra Report | Truce or Dare

Recap:

The United States and the Houthis reached a ceasefire to halt Red Sea hostilities. While the Houthis have agreed to stop attacking US vessels, their leadership has publicly stated that their attacks against Israel will continue.

The Context:

·      The Iranian backed Houthis are a Shiite rebel group, designated by the US State Department as a terrorist organization. They seized Yemen’s capital in 2014 and survived a years-long Saudi-led campaign aimed at returning the government to power. The Houthis have spent the past 18 months disrupting global trade, attacking merchant vessels in the Red Sea and forcing ships from most nations to reroute. Port calls in the Red Sea have plummeted 85%, while traffic through the Suez Canal has declined by 66%.

·      Israel has carried out air strikes against the Houthis since 2024 in response to hundreds of missiles and drones that have been launched from Yemen. Israeli jets have hit key Houthi infrastructure, but the group has proven resilient, using Yemen’s mountainous terrain as an asset in the face of aerial attacks.

·      US President Donald Trump announced an immediate end to US strikes on the Houthis following what he described as the group’s "capitulation." The US has bombed Yemen every night since March 15th, following a decision to launch American attacks on the terrorist group. The Houthis reject that framing, claiming instead that America "backed down" after weeks of ineffective strikes. Asked about Houthi pledges to continue attacks against Israel, Trump responded, “I’ll discuss that if something happens.” On Sunday, a Houthi missile landed near Israel's main international airport.

·      Next week, Trump will be making his first foreign trip of his second term to meet with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. The US is no longer demanding Saudi Arabia normalize ties with Israel as a condition for progress on civil nuclear cooperation talks. Under former US president Joe Biden, nuclear talks were an element of a wider US-Saudi deal tied to normalization with Israel. Trump does not plan to visit Israel on this trip.

·      Trump’s shifting positions raise fears in Jerusalem that the US is sidelining Israel. America has been engaged with Iran on a new round of nuclear disarmament talks and the ceasefire with the Houthis was announced without Israeli input and does nothing to address ongoing attacks on Israeli territory. Senior US officials have even hinted that broader normalization talks with Saudi Arabia could proceed regardless of Israeli involvement.

Conversation Points:

·      What does Trump’s dealmaking with Iran, the Houthis and Saudi Arabia say about his posture towards Israel in his second term?

·      Can Israel stop the Houthis without international support?

·      Has the US outsourced its regional deterrence to Israel?

Notes:

·      "Trump says US to stop attacking Houthis in Yemen as group has 'capitulated'," BBC News, May 6, 2025

·      "Yemen’s Houthis say attacks on Israel not in US ceasefire deal in ‘any way,’" Al Jazeera, May 7, 2025

·      "US-Houthi ceasefire leaves Israel out in the cold," Times of Israel, May 7, 2025

·      "Israel attacks Yemen’s main airport after Houthi missile hits near Tel Aviv," Reuters, May 7, 2025

·      "Jerusalem Post: Houthi ceasefire doesn't cover Israel, missile lands near Ben Gurion," May 7, 2025

·      Terrorist Designation of the Houthis, The State Department, January 17th, 2024

·      Could the Houthis be next? Yemenis reflect on the fall of Syria’s al-Assad, Al Jazeera, December 25th, 2024

·      Israel Intercepts Houthi Missile and Threatens Militant Group’s Leaders, New York Times, December 24th, 2024

·      Report: Mossad chief believes Israel should target Iran to get at Houthis; PM disagrees, Times of Israel, December 26th, 2024

·      Houthi Shipping Attacks: Patterns and Expectations for 2025, Noam Raydan, Farzin Nadimi, Washington Institute, Dec 16th, 2024

·      Red Sea attacks causing steep drop in port calls, canal traffic, data shows, Global Trade Review, September 17th, 2024