The Sabra Report | Deadlock in Doha

Recap:

The ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas have collapsed. The US withdrew its delegation from Doha, citing Hamas’s failure to engage constructively and Israel recalled its negotiators shortly thereafter.

The Context:

·      The war in Gaza began on October 7^th, 2023, following a Hamas-led attack that killed 1,200 Israelis and resulted in the abduction of over 250 hostages. Since then, Israel has conducted a sustained military campaign against Hamas, while Qatar, Egypt, and the US have sought to broker ceasefires and secure hostage releases.

·      In January, under joint pressure from Israel and the Trump administration, Hamas agreed to a limited deal, releasing Israeli hostages in exchange for humanitarian aid and prisoner releases. The current proposal would have established a 60-day ceasefire in which Hamas would release 10 living hostages and the remains of 18 others in phases. In return, Israel would release Palestinian prisoners and expand humanitarian aid access. Further negotiations would follow regarding a permanent ceasefire and the release of 22 remaining hostages, 10 of whom are believed to be alive.

·      Earlier this week, Hamas submitted a counterproposal which US envoy Steve Witkoff dismissed as unserious. According to Israeli reports, Hamas now demands the release of 200 Palestinians serving life sentences and 2,000 more detained after October 7^th which was well beyond the framework reportedly accepted by Israel, which included 125 life-term prisoners and 1,200 other prisoners. US officials suspect internal divisions within Hamas are obstructing progress. A joint statement by 25 countries condemning Israel’s conduct may have further strained ceasefire efforts. In response, Israel’s Foreign Ministry said, “at these sensitive moments in the ongoing negotiations, it is better to avoid statements of this kind.” This week, France announced that it would recognize a Palestinian state in September.

·      The talks are unfolding against a deteriorating humanitarian backdrop. Israel remains focused on recovering the hostages, whose health deteriorates by the minute, while international agencies warn that Gaza’s population faces escalating food insecurity. Aid distribution is currently channeled through the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation to bypass Hamas but has been plagued by scenes of chaos since its inception.

Conversation Points:

·      Can Hamas be pressured to compromise if it doesn’t care about the fate of the Gazan population?

·      Can Israel still leverage military pressure to secure better terms, or has that strategy reached its limit?

·      How should Israel approach negotiations with Hamas now that its leadership is fractured?

Notes:

·      Trump envoy Witkoff says US cutting short Gaza ceasefire talks, AP, July 24, 2025

·      Israel studying Hamas response to Gaza proposal, Times of Israel, July 24, 2025

·      US envoy Witkoff to meet Israeli, Qatari officials in Rome, Axios, July 24, 2025

·      Hamas response shows it doesn’t want deal, Witkoff says, Times of Israel, July 24, 2025

·      January hostage deal marks breakthrough in Gaza standoff, Times of Israel, January 29, 2025

·      85 Palestinians killed while seeking food, Seattle Times, July 21, 2025