The Sabra Report | Dodging Disaster

Recap:

The Israeli Knesset narrowly rejected a preliminary vote to dissolve itself, with 61 lawmakers opposing and 53 supporting. Under parliamentary rules, a new dissolution vote cannot be brought forward for another six months which shields the government from collapse until at least late 2025.

The Context:

·      Over 400 Israeli soldiers have been killed in the war started by Hamas on October 7th, 2023. Many Israelis question the fairness of a system that requires most Jewish 18-year-olds to serve while exempting tens of thousands of yeshiva students. The exemption began with just a few hundred students in 1948 but has since grown exponentially. A year ago, Israel’s Supreme Court ruled that the blanket exemption policy must end. The ultra-Orthodox community makes up 13.5% of the country’s total population and is expected to grow to 16% in 2030.

·      Prior to the vote, Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ) threatened to support the dissolution bill unless an acceptable compromise was reached on a draft exemption bill. After marathon negotiations a preliminary agreement was struck, preventing an immediate coalition breakdown. Shas and UTJ hold 18 of the coalition’s 68 seats, giving them considerable leverage despite limited broader appeal.

·      The revised draft bill introduces phased penalties for draft avoidance. Some sanctions — such as restrictions on driver’s licenses, academic benefits, and international travel — would take effect immediately, while others, including cuts to public transit and daycare subsidies, are delayed.

·      Polls consistently suggest that the current government would fare poorly in new elections so the ideologically disparate parties in Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition — many of them unpopular and unlikely to improve their standing in future elections — are incentivized to keep the government intact. Despite the compromise, two Agudat Yisrael lawmakers voted in favor of dissolution and its leader Yitzhak Goldknopf, who also chairs UTJ, resigned.

Conversation Points:

·      Should military conscription be applied equally to all citizens in a democracy?

·      What are the long-term implications of continual concessions on Haredi military service?

·      How should a democratic government balance the interests of small but influential coalition partners against the preferences of the broader public?

Notes:

·      “Israel Knesset rejects vote on dissolving itself,” Maayan Lubell, Reuters, June 11, 2025

·      “After compromise, Haredi parties back off threat to dissolve Knesset,” Times of Israel, June 12, 2025

·      “Netanyahu Survives a Vote to Dissolve Parliament but Emerges Weakened,” Isabel Kershner, New York Times, June 11, 2025

·      “Road to elections? Shas, Degel Hatorah will vote to dissolve Knesset,” Jerusalem Post, June 9, 2025

·      “Knesset dispersal vote uncertain as haredim, Edelstein hold late meeting,” Jerusalem Post, June 11, 2025

·      “Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu faces toughest test yet with first vote to dissolve Knesset,” New York Post, June 11, 2025