The Sabra Report | Target Tehran

Recap:

Last week, Israel launched an aerial assault on Iran, fearing the regime was on the brink of a nuclear weapon. In under a week, Israel decapitated much of Iran’s military leadership and severely damaged its military and nuclear infrastructure—though core facilities remain intact. Iran responded by targeting Israeli civilian infrastructure, including a direct strike on Soroka Hospital in Beersheba. US President Donald Trump is expected to decide within two weeks whether to intervene militarily and finish what Israel started.

The Context:

·      Iran’s hostility toward the US and Israel has defined its foreign policy since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Over the past four decades, Tehran built a regional proxy network in Lebanon, Gaza, Syria, the West Bank, and Yemen to deter attacks on its nuclear program by threatening Israel with multi front retaliation.

·      Iran’s ring of fire began to unravel on October 7th. Hamas’ attack on Israel resulted in a military campaign that significantly degraded Hamas and Hezbollah. Israeli aircraft now operate freely inside Iranian airspace.

·      Iran’s response has focused on Israeli civilian population centers. In response, Defense Minister Israel Katz declared that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei “cannot continue to exist.” Khamenei has rejected US demands for surrender and warned that any American involvement would result in “irreparable damage” and spark a wider regional war.

·      The 2015 nuclear deal to set back Iran’s nuclear program, signed under the Obama administration and later abandoned by Trump in his first term, was briefly revisited early in Trump’s second term but the current US position has shifted from trying to secure a deal to the complete surrender of the Iranian regime. Trump is considering a range of military options, including the use of bunker-busting bombs, amid concerns that only the US can ensure Iran’s nuclear program is fully destroyed.

·      UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has called for diplomacy, while French President Emmanuel Macron urged de-escalation. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that Israel is “doing the dirty work” of the international community. Russia warned that US military intervention could trigger a “terrible spiral of escalation.” A recent Washington Post poll shows that only 25% of Americans support US military involvement, with 45% opposed and 30% undecided.

Conversation Points:

·      Why can’t Israel de-escalate its confrontation with Iran?

·      Will Trump intervene militarily even if it defies his base?

·      Have Iran’s proxy investments backfired by triggering the scenario they were meant to prevent?

Notes:

·      “Israel vows vengeance after Iran targets hospital,” Fox News, June 19, 2025

·      “Trump considers bunker buster bombs for Iran strike,” Fox News, June 19, 2025

·      “A ‘terrible spiral of escalation’: World braces for Iran-Israel conflict,” CNBC, June 19, 2025

·      “Putin says Russia could mediate between Israel and Iran,” AP, June 18, 2025

·      “Sabra poll: Americans wary of US strikes on Iran,” Washington Post, June 18, 2025

·      “Starmer urges diplomacy as Trump mulls Iran action,” BBC, June 19, 2025

·      “Khamenei cannot continue to exist,” Times of Israel, June 19, 2025

·      “USS Gerald R. Ford heads to Mediterranean as tensions spike,” Fox News, June 19, 2025

·      “IDF says strikes on Iran knocked out missile infrastructure,” IDF statement, June 19, 2025