The Sabra Report | Talks Over Tehran

Recap

In a surprise announcement, President Donald Trump revealed that the US and Iran will resume nuclear talks this Saturday in Oman — the first since 2015.

The Context:

·      Efforts to curb Iran’s nuclear program have shaped the region for over two decades. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was intended to halt Iran’s path to a nuclear weapon in exchange for sanctions relief. Israel strongly opposed the deal, saying it failed to prevent Iran from building a bomb. In 2018, Trump withdrew from the JCPOA, reinstated sanctions, and pursued a maximum pressure strategy. Diplomatic efforts under the Biden administration failed to restore the agreement, and the UN now says Iran is “dramatically” accelerating its enrichment of uranium to 60% purity. 90% is weapons grade.

·      On Monday, Trump announced that the US and Iran would resume nuclear negotiations. Trump described the meeting as direct and “high-level,” though Iran says they are indirect and mediated. The announcement came during a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who appeared surprised by the news. In the days that followed, the US introduced new sanctions targeting Iranian nuclear entities, while deploying additional military assets to the region.

·      Both countries remain far apart on key issues. The US demands full stoppage of Iran’s uranium enrichment capabilities and permanent restrictions on its nuclear infrastructure. Israel supports this position and views any agreement that allows continued enrichment as unacceptable. Iran, meanwhile, insists its program is peaceful and within its rights under the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

·      Since the founding of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979, it has sought Israel’s destruction however after October 7th, 2023, Israel significantly degraded Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis while Iran’s man in Syria, Bashar Al Assad, was overthrown in 2024. Multiple Iranian attacks on Israeli soil have been neutralized, and Israel has responded with targeted, successful strikes. Netanyahu said that if a deal can be done “diplomatically, in a full way, I think that would be a good thing.”

Conversation Points:

·      Can a meaningful nuclear agreement be forged when each side defines the deal so differently?

·      Is Trump sidelining Israel by pushing forward without prior coordination?

·      Could a weak deal trigger unilateral Israeli military action?

Notes:

·      “An emboldened US and a weakened Iran will hold nuclear talks. Is there space for a deal?” CNN, April 9, 2025

·      “Trump says US holding nuclear talks with Iran in surprise announcement,” Axios, April 8, 2025

·      “Iran’s president insists Tehran ‘not after nuclear bomb,’ invites US investors,” Times of Israel, April 9, 2025

·      “Kremlin says Russia ready to help resolve US-Iran nuclear tensions,” Reuters, April 7, 2025

·      “Trump says US ‘having direct talks’ with Iran over nuclear deal,” The Guardian, April 7, 2025

·      “US-Iran nuclear talks are set to begin in Oman,” CBS News, April 8, 2025

·      “Netanyahu: Iran can agree to US nuclear deal, but under one condition,” Jerusalem Post, April 8, 2025

·      “US issues new sanctions on Iran as Trump seeks nuclear talks,” Times of Israel, April 9, 2025

·      “New Sanctions Targeting Iran’s Nuclear Program,” US State Department, April 9, 2025