Trevor Hunnicutt, Maayan Lubell and Matt Spetalnick, Reuters, October 9th 2024
Recap:
The US, along with the Middle East, is awaiting Israel’s response to the roughly 200 ballistic missiles launched by Iran last week. The US has tried to dissuade Israel from mounting a response that it views as disproportionate, but Israel has said it will do what it takes to keep Israelis safe.
The Context:
· After Iran launched its first ever direct attack on Israel in April, Israel heeded Western calls for restraint, striking an air defense system at an Iranian airbase. Now, following another Iranian attack and in the midst of dismantling Iran’s Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah, Israel’s response is expected to be much more severe [1]. At a G7 meeting, President Joe Biden said he would not support any Israeli decision to strike Iran's nuclear facilities [2] but despite its efforts to play a role in tempering Israel’s approach, the US has found itself in the dark. America was blindsided by Israel's killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and the detonation of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel has also been slow to share details of its planning for retaliation against Iran's ballistic missile attack.
· Among potential targets are Iran's military bases, its oil and economic infrastructure, key leaders in the Iranian regime and its nuclear sites. Iran has long insisted that its nuclear facilities are for civilian purposes only, but Rafael Mariano Grossi of the IAEA says Iran has enough uranium to make "several" nuclear bombs [3].
· Striking anywhere in Iran is a logistical challenge for Israel. Fighter jets would need to fly over 1,000 miles to their target, requiring a complicated midair refueling operation over hostile skies [4]. Destroying Iran’s underground nuclear facilities poses a “weaponeering challenge like none other." The US Air Force would likely rely on one of its largest conventional weapons, a 30,000-pound bomb encased in steel that allows it to burrow deep into the earth before exploding. Israel, as it did to kill Nasrallah in Beirut, would have to rely on a series of smaller bombs striking the same spot. In Beirut, the Israeli air force dropped 2,000 bombs repeatedly into the same hole [5]. This week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened the security cabinet. According to Israeli law, the Prime Minister needs a cabinet vote for a military action that could lead to an all-out war with Iran [6].
Conversation Points:
· Why is Israel keeping America, its greatest ally, out of the loop?
· Was Nasrallah’s assassination a proof of concept that Israel can destroy Iran’s underground facilities?
· Would an attempt by Israel to strike Iran's nuclear facilities serve as a catalyst to further Iranian nuclear proliferation? Should that factor into Israel’s decision?
Notes:
1. Biden and Netanyahu meet as Gallant warns of ‘deadly’ surprise attack on Iran, Bethan McKernan and Julian Borger, The Guardian, October 9th, 2024
2. Israel vows to hit back at Iran. Will it bomb Tehran's nuclear sites?, Kim Hjelmgaard, USA Today, October 9th, 2024
3. Ibid.
4. As Israel plots to strike Iran, its choices range from symbolic to severe, JOSEF FEDERMAN, AP News, October 9th, 2024
5. Israel vows to hit back at Iran. Will it bomb Tehran's nuclear sites?, Kim Hjelmgaard, USA Today, October 9th, 2024
6. Biden, Harris speak to Netanyahu about Israel's retaliation against Iran, Barak Ravid, Axios, October 9th, 2024
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