Ceasefire in Lebanon
Recap:
The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah follows Israel's significant degradation of Hezbollah’s military capabilities after the group began firing on Israel 14 months ago.
The Context:
· Hezbollah started firing rockets into Israel after Hamas attacked Israel on October 7th, 2023, killing 1,200 and kidnapping 251. The fighting intensified eight weeks ago when Israel initiated a ground invasion of southern Lebanon to eliminate the threat to its northern border [1]. Israel is believed to have destroyed 80% of Hezbollah’s rocket arsenal and has killed almost all of Hezbollah’s top and mid-level leadership, including its longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah. 60,000 residents from Israel’s northern towns have been displaced since the start of the war and over 1.2 million Lebanese have been displaced since Israel began its offensive.
· The ceasefire calls for Israel to withdraw from southern Lebanon within 60 days while the Lebanese Armed Forces takes its place. The US endorsed Israel’s right to self-defense [2] and agreed to validate any reported violations. Lebanon's army will be tasked with keeping Hezbollah north of the Litani River, 20 miles from Israel’s border [3]. A similar deal was struck after the last war in 2006 but never enforced. The deals’ architects hope this time will be different since Hezbollah has been much diminished and will struggle to regain its former strength [4].
· US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron said the deal "will secure Israel from the threat of Hezbollah and create the conditions to restore lasting calm”. Iran — Hezbollah’s primary backer—welcomed the news to end "aggression against Lebanon [5]." The White House dismissed the notion that the incoming Trump administration had contributed to the momentum of the deal, saying strain on its military pushed Israel to come to an agreement and that a stabilized border allows Israel to refocus on Iran [6].
· On the heels of the Lebanon deal, an Egyptian security delegation arrived in Israel to discuss a long elusive Gaza ceasefire that would end the war and free the 101 Israeli hostages still held in Gaza [7].
Conversation Points:
· Will the terms of the Lebanon ceasefire be enough to get Israelis back to their homes in the north?
· Why did Hezbollah finally decouple its war from the one in Gaza and agree to a separate peace?
· Will this ceasefire create the “conditions to restore lasting calm”?
· Was the Lebanon ceasefire a welcome gift to the incoming Trump administration?
Notes:
1. The world welcomes the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, but worries remain, Scott Neuman, NPR, November 27, 2024
2. 5 key takeaways from Israel-Lebanon ceasefire brokered by US, Laura Kelly, The Hill, November 27th, 2024
3. Israel-Hezbollah truce holds, displaced Lebanese begin to journey home, Maya Gebeily and Aziz Taher, Reuters, November 27th, 2024
4. Peace in Lebanon is just a start, The Economist, November 27th, 2024
5. The world welcomes the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, but worries remain, Scott Neuman, NPR, November 27, 2024
6. 5 key takeaways from Israel-Lebanon ceasefire brokered by US, Laura Kelly, The Hill, November 27th, 2024
7. Egyptians said bringing ‘comprehensive’ Gaza proposal to Israel as truce talks resume, Times of Israel, November 28th, 2024
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