Sabra Express | Assad Falls, Israel Acts

Recap:

53 years of Assad family rule came to an end after a lightning offensive by Syrian rebels.

The Context:

·      Syria has been in a state of war with Israel since its founding in 1948, launching major conflicts in 1948, 1967, and 1973. While the last 50 years have seen no formal wars between the two countries, a shadow war has persisted, with Syria serving as a transit hub for Iranian arms to its proxies, particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon. In 2007, Israel destroyed Syria's covert nuclear weapons program.

·      The onset of Syria's civil war in 2011 shifted the Assad regime's focus inward as it sought to crush domestic dissent. The conflict resulted in over 600,000 deaths and the displacement of 12 million people. Assad’s regime has long relied on Russian and Iranian support to maintain its grip on power [1].

·      With Russia distracted by its war in Ukraine and Iran and its proxies majorly degraded by Israel [2], a coalition of opposition fighters launched a major offensive against the regime on November 27th. Underpaid soldiers abandoned their posts, surrendering weapons, and fleeing advancing forces. Three days later, the opposition fighters took Syria’s second-largest city, Aleppo. By December 8th Damascus, Syria’s capital, had fallen, with the Assad family exiled to Moscow.

·      Israel welcomed the fall of Assad, but reacted cautiously to the leading rebel faction, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) which has its roots in al Qaeda and the Islamic State [3]. Israel deployed ground troops into a demilitarized buffer zone for the first time in 50 years with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying the agreement that established the zone had “collapsed” after Syrian soldiers abandoned their positions [4].

·      The Israeli military carried out 480 strikes across Syria [5], destroying missiles, fighter jets, helicopters, radars, tanks and chemical weapons sites. Israel estimates that it destroyed 70-80% of Assad’s strategic military capabilities [6]. The US also carried out more than 75 strikes against Islamic State camps to prevent the terrorist group from exploiting the situation [7].

Conversation Points:

·      Would the Assad regime had fallen if Russia and Iran weren’t bogged down elsewhere? 

·      Is it better to deal with the devil you know than the devil you don’t?

·      Why was Israel’s military response to the unrest in Syria strategic for its own security?

Notes:

1.        What happened in Syria? How did al-Assad fall?, Al Jazeera, December 8th 2024

2.        Israel strikes targets in Syria after Assad regime falls, Brad Dress, The Hill, December 10th 2024

3.        Israel says its air strikes destroyed most of Syria's strategic weapons stockpiles, James Mackenzie and Suleiman Al-Khalidi, Reuters,December 10th 2024

4.        Israel strikes and advances into Syrian territory after Assad's overthrow, fueling alarm, Freddie Clayton, NBC News, December 10th 2024

5.        Israel strikes Syria 480 times and seizes territory as Netanyahu pledges to change face of the Middle East, Mick Krever, CNN, December 10th 2024

6.        In historic campaign across Syria, IDF says it destroyed 80% of Assad regime’s military, Emanuel Fabian, Times of Israel, December 10th 2024

7.        Israel strikes and advances into Syrian territory after Assad's overthrow, fueling alarm, Freddie Clayton, NBC News, December 10th 2024